The Rise of a Multipolar World Amidst Waning U.S. Influence
By Journal Hill Team
On Christmas Day, 1991, the world watched with astonishment as the infamous hammer and sickle of the Soviet Union was lowered for the last time and replaced with the Russian flag. The event marked the official end of the Cold War and the beginning of the American unipolar moment—with the United States as the sole hegemonic global power.
A unipolar system is one in which a single nation enjoys significant global power without much competition. In this new role, the US. was the enforcer of global security, and thereby global trade, in what would later become known as the rules-based international order. This order was implemented through internationally recognized institutions such as the United Nations Security Council, the Charter of the United Nations, and the Geneva Conventions. Global conflict was typically addressed through a unilateral coalition of nations led by the US, and member nations universally accepted the system by which the global community was expected to operate. This held through most of the 1990s and into the 2010s. However, amid accelerating deglobalization, domestic political polarization and unrest, multiple financial crises, the COVID-19 pandemic, increasing debt due in part to costly military interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan, and geopolitical instability, the world is sensing US exhaustion. The American unipolar moment has begun to fade, giving rise to a multipolar world in which China, Russia, and several regional powers exert influence, chipping away at the once-dominant U.S. hegemony of the post-Cold War era.
It’s not surprising then, that the United Nations Secretary-General recently launched a policy brief outlining his vision to address the challenges of this new era. “The post-Cold War period is over, and we are moving towards a new global order and a multipolar world,” António Guterres said.
Globalization has accelerated this process as emerging economies continue to drive a larger proportion of the world’s economy. According to the International Monetary Fund’s 2023 GDP Outlook Indicator, the nations in the global South constitute a larger share of the global economy than both the G7 and industrialized countries combined. Nations typically on the political periphery of international institutions seek to implement global frameworks that accommodate their vision for the international order and advance their national interests without encumberment from the old, industrialized powers.
International law continues to be undermined, as violations and acts of aggression become the norm in a multipolar landscape struggling to implement the competing interests of nations. Lack of trust in international security infrastructures, particularly due to the failures of the Security Council’s Permanent Five to be more inclusive, has also given rise to an arms race of a temperature not seen since the Cold War.
The year 2022 was the deadliest one for global conflicts since the initial fall of the Soviet Union. Nations that once relied on international law to resolve conflict and ensure regional stability are beginning to operate outside the frameworks of the cohesive, rules-based international order, instead choosing divisive nationalistic interests as a guiding principle.
The war in Ukraine demonstrates the frailties of the disintegrating international order. Ukraine has long been on the frontlines between East and West, a tenuous broker for both Western Christendom and the Eastern Orthodox Church. This country’s very name, which means “the Borderlands” alludes to its historically contentious boundaries and alliances. The fact that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in March of 2022 has not created a bipolar East-versus-West bloc means that countries in the region are no longer feeling the compulsion to join a designated side. China, while verbally backing Russia politically, has taken a stance of non-intervention, neither aligning with the US-led NATO coalition nor providing the military support that Russia would wholeheartedly prefer.
Our descent into a multipolar world has presented the United States with a plethora of geostrategic complexities for the 21st century, fast being dubbed by many as the Asian century for the rising ambitions of China, Russia, India, and several Asian powers, a region that makes up almost 60% of the global population.
U.S. political influence in the Middle East, Africa, East Asia, and South America is increasingly undermined by Russia, China, and emerging coalitions of nations that are creating new economic partnerships, security agreements, and diplomatic ties in favor of multipolarity.
Describing the state of global affairs between the First World War and the Second World War, the late Italian political theorist Antonio Gramsci said, “The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born.” A century later, his words hold relevance for our current moment of flux. Senior US foreign policy officials and political elite must take heed of this reality by incorporating the concerns of emerging powers into the frameworks of international institutions, thereby maintaining hegemonic relevancy, credibility, and influence.
